Anhur Dynamics Consulting’s contribution was central to strengthening the commercial and technical rigour of the business case. We prepared a detailed first-principles estimate developed from the ground up, including a detailed review of all available design documentation to validate scope definition, construction methodology, productivity calculations, comprehensive quantity take-offs, productivity-based rate build-ups, and clear delineation of direct costs, indirect costs, preliminaries, escalation, and overheads. The estimate was structured to enable transparent comparison across five potential upgrade options, ensuring consistency of assumptions and commercial alignment.

A comprehensive Quantitative Cost Risk Assessment (QCRA) was undertaken to systematically identify, analyse, and model key project risks, including brownfield uncertainties, formation conditions, possession constraints, supply chain factors, and constructability challenges within a live freight corridor. Risk drivers were quantified using evidence-based inputs, generating statistically derived contingency allowances tailored to each option and aligned with the project’s level of definition. In parallel, we worked closely with ARTC to develop and refine the scope of works, clearly articulating the technical extent, interfaces, and delivery assumptions underpinning each option.

This process ensured the scope was both operationally realistic and commercially defensible, eliminating ambiguity and strengthening the integrity of the cost model. Technical advice was provided throughout to inform scope optimisation, staging considerations, productivity assumptions, and risk mitigation strategies. Our integrated approach delivered an investment-ready cost and risk position, providing ARTC with the confidence and clarity required to support governance review and funding approval for the preferred option.